BTC price due for $31K as analyst says 'disinflation' boosting Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) looked set to challenge range highs on July 13 as fresh macroeconomic data boosted risk asset bulls.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingViewPPI shows U.S. inflation retreating beyond expectations
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed the market as the BTC price focus shifted above $30,500.
PPI inflation leads CPI by a few months... and today's PPI numbers have YoY running at +0.24%
Almost in deflation! Fed pivot anyone? https://t.co/oM4ck5Vgwy pic.twitter.com/Xl78ohLzOM
— tedtalksmacro (@tedtalksmacro) July 13, 2023United States Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers released on the day again came in below expectations, aiding rapidly abating inflation forecasts.
With two weeks to go until the Federal Reserve decided on interest rate policy, however, markets themselves remained convinced that another hike would come next — despite the PPI and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the day prior.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, bets on a 0.25% hike stood at almost 95% at the time of writing.
Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group“Quite literally, everything is pointing to more disinflation in the months & quarters ahead (even if energy rallies from here). Core CPI is going to decelerate so fast, people will be shocked,” Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, wrote in part of follow-up.
Franzen argued that declining inflation had directly influenced the BTC price rebound throughout 2023.
“Notice how equities are ripping this year? Notice how Bitcoin is up +86% YTD? Asset prices are multi-variate, but a lot of the upward momentum has been from disinflation,” he explained.
Analyst gives $38,000 Bitcoin breakout target
On Bitcoin itself, the mood was more optimistic.
Related: Will Bitcoin catch up? BTC price was $40K when the dollar was previously this weak
Alongside PPI came news that Europe would see its first Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund, or ETF, launching this year.
Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, hoped that the time would soon come for a breakout.
“Bitcoin holds $30,200 and most likely will start looking at range high again,” he said about overnight BTC price action.
“Another test and we'll have a swift breakout to $38K.”An additional Twitter post on the day gave a downside target of $29,300 should the $30,000 support fail to continue holding.
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/TwitterOthers, including popular trader Skew, suggested that while the range remained stubbornly in place, a return to trend was not far away.
$BTC 4H
Two weeks later, still chopping here lol
However, price nicely grinding on 4H / 1D EMAs
Stoch reset / RSI reset
Market seems ready for major move https://t.co/RD3ffAKQag pic.twitter.com/eHCBPflsm1
— Skew Δ (@52kskew) July 13, 2023Fellow trader Jelle meanwhile eyed a triangle formation immediately below "key" $31,000 resistance.
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