LTC, XMR, AAVE, and MKR turn bullish as Bitcoin stalls under $31K
Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading in a narrow range for the past few days but that doesn’t take away the sheen from its stunning 84% rally in 2023. The strong recovery in Bitcoin’s price has boosted buying in several altcoins, which have risen sharply from their yearly lows.
As the second half of the year begins, the major question on every investor’s mind is, will the rally continue? CoinGlass data shows that July has seen only three negative monthly closes since 2013 and the biggest decline was 9.69% in 2014. This suggests that bulls have a slight edge.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360A large part of the latest leg of the rally in Bitcoin and altcoins was fuelled by hopes that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission will approve one or more applications for a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund. Any adverse news on this front could turn the sentiment bearish and result in a sharp sell-off.
However, for now, Bitcoin and select altcoins are showing strength. Let’s analyze the charts of the top-5 cryptocurrencies that may continue their up-move over the next few days.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin continues to trade near the stiff overhead resistance at $31,000. This suggests that the bulls are in no hurry to book profits as they anticipate another leg higher.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewUsually, a tight consolidation near a crucial overhead resistance resolves to the upside The rising 20-day exponential moving average ($29,278) and the relative strength index (RSI) in the positive territory indicate that the road of least resistance is to the upside.
If bulls propel and sustain the price above $31,000, the BTC/USDT pair is likely to start the next leg of the uptrend. The bullish momentum may catapult the price above the immediate resistance at $32,400. If that happens, the pair may continue its northward march toward $40,000.
If bears want to make a comeback, they will have to sink and sustain the price below the 20-day EMA. The pair could then slide to the 50-day simple moving average ($27,622).
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingViewBoth moving averages have flattened out and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. The price has been stuck between $31,431 and $29,500 for some time.
Buyers will have to drive and sustain the price above the $31,431 hurdle to indicate the resumption of the up-move. Alternatively, a break and close below the $29,500 support may start a deeper correction toward $27,500.
Litecoin price analysis
Litecoin (LTC) skyrocketed above the descending channel and the overhead resistance of $106 on June 30, indicating the resumption of the uptrend.
LTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bears yanked the price back below the breakout level of $106 on July 1 but the bulls purchased the dip. If buyers sustain the price above $106, it increases the likelihood of the continuation of the rally. The LTC/USDT pair could then soar to the overhead resistance zone between $134 and $144.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price slips and sustains below $106, it will signal that bears are selling at higher levels. That could pull the price to the psychological level of $100 and then to the breakout level from the channel.
LTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingViewThe 4-hour chart shows that bears are attempting to guard the $112 level with vigor but they are struggling to sustain the price below $106. This suggests that the bulls are buying at lower levels. The rising 20-EMA and the RSI in the overbought territory indicate that buyers have the edge.
If the price sustains above $112, the pair may start the next leg of the uptrend toward $126. The first support on the downside is at the 20-EMA and then at $98.
Monero price analysis
Monero (XMR) rose and closed above the downtrend line on June 23, invalidating the developing descending triangle pattern.
XMR/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe failure of a bearish pattern is typically a positive sign as it traps several aggressive bears, resulting in a short squeeze. That could be seen in the XMR/USDT pair which surged from $150 on June 23 to $171 on June 27.
After the sharp rally, the price has been oscillating between $171 and $160 for the past few days. The consolidation is a positive sign as it shows that the bulls are holding on to their positions as they anticipate another leg higher.
If buyers shove the price above $171, the pair may start the next leg of the up-move. The pair may then skyrocket to $187. The bears will have to sink the price back below the 50-day SMA ($149) to seize control.
XMR/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingViewThe 4-hour chart shows the formation of a symmetrical triangle, which generally acts as a continuation pattern. If buyers push and sustain the price above the triangle, it will suggest that the uncertainty between the bulls and the bears has resolved in favor of the buyers. That could signal the resumption of the up-move. The pattern target of this setup is $182.
This positive view will invalidate in the near term if the price turns down and plummets below the triangle. The pair could then plunge to $148.
Related: Why is Litecoin price up today?
Aave price analysis
Aave (AAVE) has been trading inside a descending channel pattern for the past several weeks. The price turned down from the resistance line of the channel on June 25 but the bulls arrested the correction at the 20-day EMA ($61.69).
AAVE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThis suggests a change in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips. The price has again reached the resistance line. The repeated retest of a resistance level within a short interval tends to weaken it.
The rising 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If buyers propel and sustain the price above the channel, the AAVE/USDT pair could start a new up-move toward $84.
The 20-day EMA remains the important support to watch on the downside. A break and close below this level will suggest that the pair may spend some more time inside the channel.
AAVE/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingViewBoth moving averages are sloping up on the 4-hour chart and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that buyers are in control. If bulls flip the downtrend line into support, the pair may rise to $76.
Alternatively, if the price sinks and sustains below the downtrend line, it will signal that bears remain active at higher levels. The pair may then slump to the moving averages. A break below the 50-SMA may open the doors for a possible drop to $62 and then to $58.
Maker price analysis
Maker (MKR) is attempting to start an up-move. The bulls purchased the dip to the moving averages between June 24 and 28, indicating demand at lower levels.
MKR/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe 20-day EMA ($725) has turned up and the RSI is in the overbought territory, indicating that bulls have the upper hand. Buyers pushed the price above the downtrend line on July 2 but the long wick on the candlestick shows strong selling at higher levels.
A minor positive in favor of the buyers is that they have held their ground. This enhances the prospects of a rally above the downtrend line. If that happens, the MKR/USDT pair may soar toward $979. The first sign of weakness will be a drop below $772. That could start a deeper correction toward the 20-day EMA.
MKR/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingViewThe pair closed above the downtrend line but the rally is facing selling at higher levels. The bears are trying to trap the aggressive bulls by pulling the price back below the downtrend line. If they do that, the pair could descend to the 20-EMA. This remains the key level to watch out for because a break below it will tilt the advantage in favor of the bears.
Contrarily, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above $900, it will suggest that bulls have flipped the downtrend line into support. That could start a rally to $941.
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