Price analysis 10/1: BTC, ETH, ADA, BNB, XRP, SOL, DOT, DOGE, LUNA, UNI
The month of September stayed true to its billing as a historically weak period for cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin (BTC) closed the month with a loss of about 7%. However, October may bring cheer to the bulls because Bitcoin has risen in six of the past eight years, falling only in 2018 and 2014.
The bulls started the month on a positive note as bears scurried to close their short positions. Data shows that more than $270 million worth of short positions were liquidated within minutes. Bitcoin’s enthusiasm was also shared by several altcoins which have surged higher today.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360Bitcoin has closely followed PlanB's Stock-to-Flow model projections in the past two months. If PlanB is lucky enough to be right for the third time, then Bitcoin could rally to $63,000, which is the model's prediction for October.
Although the start to the month has been strong, will bulls be able to sustain the momentum and boost crypto prices further, or will higher levels attract selling by the bears?
Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
BTC/USDT
The repeated failure of the bears to sink Bitcoin below the 100-day simple moving average ($41,470) in the past few days could have attracted buying from aggressive bulls and short-covering from short-term traders.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bullish momentum picked up today after bulls pushed the price above the 20-day exponential moving average ($44,485). Sustained buying has driven the price above the 50-day SMA ($46,604).
If the price sustains above the 50-day SMA, the bulls will try to push the BTC/USDT pair above the right shoulder at $48,843.20. This could open the doors for an up-move to the stiff resistance at $52,920.
If the pair turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance but does not dip below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment has turned positive and traders are buying on dips. The bears will have to pull the price back below the 20-day EMA to gain the upper hand.
ETH/USDT
The long wick on Ether’s (ETH) Sept. 29 candlestick shows that bears sold at higher levels but a positive sign is that bulls did not allow the price to break below the 100-day SMA ($2,794). This shows that bulls continued to accumulate at lower levels.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewAggressive buying in the past two days has pushed the price to the 50-day SMA ($3,290). The zone between the 50-day SMA and the downtrend line is critical for the bears to defend because if bulls push the price above it, the ETH/USDT pair could rise to $3,676.28.
The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the relative strength index (RSI) has risen into the positive territory, suggesting that bulls are making a comeback. This view will be negated if the price turns down from the current level and plunges below the 100-day SMA.
ADA/USDT
Cardano (ADA) bounced off the $2.02 level on Sept. 29, indicating that bulls are attempting to defend the zone between the psychological level at $2 and $1.94. The recovery could face stiff resistance at the 20-day EMA ($2.26).
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewIf the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. The bears will then make one more attempt to sink the price below the 100-day SMA ($1.89).
On the contrary, if bulls drive and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that demand exceeds supply. The ADA/USDT pair could then rise to the 50-day SMA ($2.45), which is again likely to act as a stiff resistance. A break and close above this resistance could result in the bullish momentum picking up.
BNB/USDT
The sharp rally in Binance Coin (BNB) in the past two days suggests short-covering by the bears and buying by the aggressive bulls. The buyers have cleared the hurdle at the 20-day EMA ($384) and may now challenge the overhead resistance at $433.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewIf the price turns down from $433 but rebounds off the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment has turned positive and traders are buying on dips.
A break and close above $433 could clear the path for a possible rally to $518.90. The 20-day EMA has started to turn up and the RSI has jumped into the positive territory, indicating that bulls are attempting a comeback.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below the 20-day EMA, the BNB/USDT pair could drop to $340.
XRP/USDT
XRP’s tight range trading between the 20-day EMA ($0.99) and the 100-day SMA ($0.89) resolved to the upside today. The flattening 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint suggest that bulls are back in the game.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewHowever, the long wick on today’s candlestick suggests that the bears have not yet given up and are trying to defend the 50-day SMA ($1.11). If the price turns down from the current level, the bears will try to pull the price to the 100-day SMA.
On the other hand, if bulls thrust and sustain the price above the 50-day SMA, it will suggest that the correction may be over. The XRP/USDT pair could then start its northward march toward the stiff resistance at $1.41.
SOL/USDT
Although bears successfully defended the 20-day EMA ($142) in the past few days, they could not pull Solana (SOL) below the support zone between the 50-day SMA ($122) and $116. This suggests that selling dried up at lower levels.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bulls have pushed the price above the 20-day EMA today, indicating that the corrective phase may be over. The SOL/USDT pair could now rise to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $166 and above it to the 61.8% retracement level at $177.80.
If the price turns down from either resistance but bounces off the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment has turned positive and traders are viewing the dips as a buying opportunity. The bears will have to pull the price below $116 to gain the upper hand.
DOT/USDT
The bulls have pushed Polkadot (DOT) above the 20-day EMA ($30.11) and the downtrend line today which is the first indication that the selling pressure may be reducing.
DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe flattening 20-day EMA and the RSI just above the midpoint suggest that bulls have a slight edge. If buyers sustain the price above the downtrend line, the DOT/USDT pair could rise to $33.60.
A break and close above this resistance could attract aggressive buying and the pair may rally to $38.77. Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance and breaks below the neckline, the pair could enter a downtrend.
Related: Why NFTs can be a riskier investment than cryptocurrencies, report
DOGE/USDT
Dogecoin’s (DOGE) tight range trading between $0.19 and $0.21 resolved to the upside today, indicating that bulls have absorbed the selling. The bulls will next try to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.22), which could act as a stiff resistance.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewIf the price turns down from the 20-day EMA but does not slip below $0.21, it will suggest that traders are buying on dips. That will increase the likelihood of a break above the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the DOGE/USDT pair could rise to the downtrend line.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA and slips below $0.21 it will suggest that demand dries up at higher levels. The bearish momentum could pick up on a close below $0.19.
LUNA/USDT
Terra protocol’s LUNA token broke below the 20-day EMA ($35.02) on Sept. 28 but the bears could not capitalize on this breakdown. The bulls purchased at lower levels and pushed the price back above the 20-day EMA on Sept. 30.
LUNA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe LUNA/USDT pair is currently facing stiff resistance at the downtrend line but the long tail on the day’s candlestick suggests that bulls are accumulating on dips. This increases the possibility of a break above the downtrend line.
If the price closes above the downtrend line, it will suggest that the correction may be over. The pair could then retest the all-time high at $45.01. This bullish view will be invalidated if the price turns down from the current level and plummets below the 50-day SMA ($32).
UNI/USDT
The bulls repeatedly failed to sustain Uniswap’s (UNI) price above the downtrend line of the descending channel in the past few days but the positive sign is that they did not give up much ground.
UNI/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewStrong buying today has propelled the price above the channel and to the overhead resistance at the 50-day SMA ($25.72). This is an important level for the bears to defend because if this resistance cracks, the UNI/USDT pair could pick up momentum.
The pair could then rise to $27.62, followed by a rally to the critical resistance at $31.41. Conversely, if the price turns down from the 50-day SMA, the bears will make one more attempt to sink the pair below $22.
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