Price analysis 10/15: BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, XRP, SOL, DOT, DOGE, LUNA, UNI
Bitcoin (BTC) rose within a few steps of $63,000 today for the first time since April 18. The recent surge in the price may have been caused after various documents pointed to the eventual approval of a futures-based BTC ETF by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. According to these documents, the regulator may be close to green lighting the application to list Valkyrie’s Bitcoin Strategy exchange-traded fund ETF for listing on Nasdaq.
Analysts pointed out that gold’s price had risen sharply leading up to the launch of the first U.S.-based gold ETF in 2004. Thereafter, the rally continued and gold’s price rose more than 300% since the ETF was approved, before forming a major top. The similarity between gold and Bitcoin being stores of value appear to have generated huge excitement for the launch of a Bitcoin ETF.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360Traders seem to have aggressively accumulated Bitcoin before the announcement of a Bitcoin ETF. The Bitcoin futures open interest in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange hit a new all-time high on Oct. 14, surpassing the previous high of $3.02 billion made on April 14.
Could Bitcoin break above the all-time high and continue its northward journey and will altcoins also join the party? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin formed a Doji candlestick pattern on Oct. 14, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears above the $58,000 level. This uncertainty resolved to the upside today and the rally has resumed.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe 20-day exponential moving average ($52,868) is sloping up and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the overbought zone, suggesting that bulls are in control. However, the all-time high at $64,854 may prove to be a difficult hurdle to cross.
If the BTC/USDT pair turns down from this resistance, the first support to watch on the downside is the 20-day EMA. A strong rebound off this support will suggest that sentiment remains positive and traders are buying the dips.
That will increase the possibility of the resumption of the uptrend with the target at $75,000. The first sign of weakness will be a break and close below the 20-day EMA, which could result in a decline to the 50-day simple moving average ($48,514).
ETH/USDT
Ether (ETH) bounced off the 20-day EMA ($3,479) on Oct. 13 and broke above the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders (H&S) pattern on Oct. 14. This completed the bullish setup which has a target objective at $4,657.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewBoth moving averages are sloping up and the RSI has broken above the downtrend line, suggesting that bulls are back in control. The ETH/USDT pair could now rally to $4,027.88 and then retest the all-time high at $4,372.72.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance and breaks below the neckline, it will suggest that bears continue to sell on rallies. The pair could then drop to the moving averages. A break and close below $3,257 will indicate that bulls may be losing their grip.
BNB/USDT
Binance Coin (BNB) broke and closed above the neckline on Oct. 13, completing an inverse H&S pattern. This bullish setup has a pattern target at $554.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bears attempted to pull the price back below the breakout level but the long tail on the day’s candlestick indicates buying at lower levels. The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating that bulls have the upper hand.
If the price rises from the current level and breaks above $518.90, it will signal the resumption of the uptrend. The bears will have to pull and sustain the BNB/USDT pair below the moving averages to weaken the bullish momentum.
ADA/USDT
The bulls are attempting to push Cardano (ADA) back into the symmetrical triangle pattern but the bears are not relenting. They are defending the support line and the 20-day EMA ($2.21) with vigor.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewIf the price turns down from the current level and breaks below $2.07, the ADA/USDT pair could drop to $2 and next to $1.87. A breach below this important level may pull the pair down to the pattern target of $1.63
Alternatively, if bulls push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rise to the resistance line of the triangle. A breakout and close above the triangle could clear the path for a rally to $2.47, followed by a move to $2.80.
XRP/USDT
XRP has been holding above the 20-day EMA ($1.08) for the past few days but the bulls have not been able to push the price to the overhead resistance at $1.24. This suggests a shortage of demand at higher levels.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewIf the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, the XRP/USDT pair could drop to $1. This level could again attract buyers but if they fail to push the price above $1.24, the bearish momentum could pick up and the slide could deepen to $0.85.
Conversely, if the price rises from the current level and breaks above $1.24, it will signal that the selling pressure may be easing. The pair could then rise to $1.41 and if bulls clear this barrier, the next stop could be $1.66.
SOL/USDT
The failure of the bears to sink Solana (SOL) below the 50-day SMA ($147) in the past few days indicates accumulation by the bulls. The buyers are currently attempting to sustain the price above the downtrend line.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewIf they succeed, the SOL/USDT pair could rise to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $177.80. This level may act as stiff resistance but if bulls overcome this hurdle, the pair may rally to $200 and then retest the all-time high at $216.
The first sign of weakness will be a break and close below the 50-day SMA. That could pull the price down to $116. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break below it could intensify the selling.
DOT/USDT
Polkadot (DOT) skyrocketed and closed above the $38.77 overhead resistance on Oct. 13, suggesting that the consolidation has resolved in favor of the bulls.
DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bears tried to pull the price back below $38.77 on Oct. 14 and today but failed. This shows that buyers are aggressively defending the breakout level. If bulls drive the price above $43.22, the DOT/USDT pair could retest the all-time high at $49.78.
If the price turns down from the current level and breaks below $38.77, the pair could drop to the 20-day EMA ($34.84). A strong bounce off this support will suggest that sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on dips.
Alternatively, if bears sink the price below the moving averages, the pair could drop to $25.50. Such a move will suggest that the breakout above $38.77 may have been a bull trap.
Related: CFTC slaps Tether and Bitfinex with a combined $42.5 million fine
DOGE/USDT
The bulls are struggling to sustain Dogecoin (DOGE) above the 20-day EMA ($0.23), which suggests that buying dries up at higher levels. A minor positive is that bulls have not allowed the price to sustain below $0.22.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI is just above the midpoint, suggesting a balance between supply and demand. This equilibrium will tilt in favor of the bears if the $0.21 support cracks. That may result in a decline to $0.19.
If the price turns up from the current level, the bulls will try to push the price to the downtrend line. A breakout and close above this level will suggest that the decline could be over. The DOGE/USDT pair may next rise to $0.32 and then to $0.35.
LUNA/USDT
Terra protocol’s LUNA token is finding support at the 50-day SMA ($36.24) for the past three days but the bulls have not been able to drive the price above the 20-day EMA ($38.86). This suggests that demand dries up at higher levels.
LUNA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe 20-day EMA is sloping down marginally and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a minor advantage to bears. A break and close below the 50-day SMA could pull the price down to $32.50 and if this support cracks, the correction could deepen to $25.
Conversely, if bulls drive the price above the 20-day EMA, the LUNA/USDT pair could pick up momentum and advance to $45.01 where bears may again try to mount a stiff resistance. A retest of the all-time high at $49.54 is likely if bulls overcome this obstacle.
UNI/USDT
Uniswap (UNI) rose above the moving averages on Oct. 13 and reached the neckline of the inverse H&S pattern on Oct. 14. The bears are currently attempting to stall the recovery at the neckline.
UNI/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe moving averages are on the verge of a bullish crossover and the RSI has climbed into the positive territory, indicating that bulls have the upper hand. If the price rebounds off the moving averages, the bulls will make one more attempt to propel the UNI/USDT pair above the neckline.
If they succeed, it will complete the inverse H&S setup, starting a possible rally to $31.41 and later to the pattern target at $36.98. This bullish view will invalidate if the price continues lower and breaks below $22. The pair could then drop to the strong support at $18.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.