Price analysis 11/17: BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, ADA, XRP, DOT, DOGE, SHIB, AVAX
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) are testing psychologically important support levels at $60,000 and $4,000 respectively. Both these levels are critical to keep the uptrend intact in the short term.
While the fall may scare off leveraged traders, Bitcoin whales seem to be viewing this dip as a buying opportunity. On-chain data shows that the third-largest Bitcoin whale added 207 Bitcoin to the holdings at an average price of about $62,053 per Bitcoin.
After the latest purchase, the whale’s holding has increased by 635 Bitcoin in November, according to journalist Colin Wu.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360However, it is not all bullish news for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. The U.S. dollar has risen to a sixteen-month high on expectations that soaring inflation may force the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise rates and accelerate the tapering of its $120 billion a month asset purchase program.
LMAX Group currency strategist Joel Kruger also said that a strengthening dollar may hit risky assets the hardest and that could be the reason for the recent pullback in Bitcoin and altcoins.
Will bulls defend the strong support levels and stage a recovery or will aggressive selling pull crypto prices below their strong support levels? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin plummeted below the 20-day exponential moving average ($62,607) and the support line of the rising wedge pattern on Nov. 16. This is the first sign that bulls may be losing their grip.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe buyers are attempting to defend the 50-day simple moving average ($59,122) but the shallow bounce indicates a lack of urgency among the bulls to buy at current levels.
If the price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA, the bears will try to sink the BTC/USDT pair below $57,820. If they succeed, the selling could pick up momentum and the pair may plummet to $52,500.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up from the current level and rises above the 20-day EMA, it will indicate strong accumulation at lower levels. The pair could then retest the overhead zone at $67,000 to $69,000.
ETH/USDT
Ether broke below the ascending channel on Nov. 15 and that was followed by further selling on Nov. 16, which pulled the price below the 20-day EMA ($4,439). This was the first close below the 20-day EMA since Oct. 1.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe long tail on today’s candlestick suggests that bulls are attempting to defend the 50-day SMA ($4,033). The 20-day EMA has started to turn down and the relative strength index (RSI) has dropped in the negative zone, indicating that bears are making a comeback.
If the price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that sentiment has turned negative and traders are selling on rallies. The ETH/USDT pair could then breach the 50-day SMA and plummet to the next support at $3,600.
This bearish view will be negated if the pair rises from the current level and breaks above the 20-day EMA.
BNB/USDT
Binance Coin (BNB) turned down from the overhead resistance at $669.30 on Nov. 15 and plunged below the 20-day EMA ($591) on Nov. 16. The selling continued today and the bears pulled the price near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $552.30.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe long tail on today’s candlestick suggests strong buying at lower levels. The buyers will now try to push the price back above the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the BNB/USDT pair will again try to rise to $669.30.
Alternatively, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment has turned negative and traders are selling on rallies. The pair could then extend its decline to the 50-day SMA ($509).
SOL/USDT
Solana (SOL) plunged below the ascending channel and the 20-day EMA ($224) on Nov. 16, indicating that the bulls may be losing their grip. The buyers are attempting to defend the breakout level at $216 but any bounce is likely to face selling at higher levels.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI has dropped to the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. This equilibrium will shift in favor of the bears if the price breaks and sustains below $216.
On the contrary, if the price rebounds off the current level, the SOL/USDT pair could rise to the downtrend line. This level may act as a stiff resistance but if bulls clear this hurdle, the pair may retest the all-time high at $259.90.
ADA/USDT
Cardano (ADA) turned down sharply on Nov. 16 and broke below the critical support at $1.87 but a minor positive is that bulls did not allow the price to close below it. The long tail on the candlestick indicates that buyers are attempting to defend the support.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bulls are attempting to push the price back above $1.87 today but higher levels may attract selling. Both moving averages have started to turn down and the RSI has dipped into the negative zone, indicating that bears are in command.
If the price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA, the bears will try to sink the ADA/USDT pair below $1.75. If they manage to do that, the pair could drop to $1.50. The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the downtrend line.
XRP/USDT
The long wick on XRP’s Nov. 15 candlestick shows that bears sold on rallies to the overhead resistance at $1.24. The selling accelerated on Nov. 16 and bears pulled the price back below the moving averages.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewIf bears sustain the price below the moving averages, the XRP/USDT pair could challenge the strong support at $1. The 20-day EMA ($1.15) has started to turn down and the RSI has dipped into the negative territory, indicating that bears have a slight edge.
A break and close below $1 could pull the price to $0.85. This level may again act as a strong support but if it cracks, the next stop could be $0.70.
Conversely, if the price breaks above the moving averages, the pair could rise to $1.24. The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above this level to signal a comeback.
DOT/USDT
Polkadot’s (DOT) failure to climb back above the 20-day EMA($45.99) may have prompted profit-booking from short-term bulls and selling by the aggressive bears. This intensified the selling and pulled the price below the 50-day SMA ($41.88) on Nov. 16.
DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe DOT/USDT pair is attempting to rebound off the uptrend line, indicating that bulls continue to buy on dips. If bulls sustain the price above the 50-day SMA, the pair could rise to the 20-day EMA.
This level is likely to again act as a barrier. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the bears will make one more attempt to pull the pair below the uptrend line and extend the decline to $32 and later to $26.
The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA to indicate that the bears may be losing their grip.
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DOGE/USDT
After trading between the moving averages for the past few days, Dogecoin (DOGE) made a decisive move lower on Nov. 16. This indicates that supply exceeds demand.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bulls are attempting to defend the support at $0.22. They will now try to push the price above the downtrend line. If they can pull it off, it will indicate that the bears may be losing their grip. The DOGE/USDT pair could then rise to $0.30.
However, the 20-day EMA ($0.25) has started to turn down and the RSI is in the negative territory, indicating that bears have the upper hand. If the price turns down from the current level or the downtrend line, the likelihood of a break below $0.22 increases. The pair may then drop to the critical support at $0.19.
SHIB/USDT
The bulls tried to sustain SHIBA INU (SHIB) above the 20-day EMA ($0.000052) on Nov. 14 and 15 but the long wick on the candlestick shows selling at higher levels.
SHIB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe selling continued on Nov. 16, pulling the price below the 20-day EMA. A minor positive is that bulls are attempting to defend the critical support at $0.000043. If buyers push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA, the SHIB/USDT pair could attempt to rise to the resistance at $0.000065.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that traders are selling on every minor rise. That will increase the possibility of a break below $0.000043 and the 50-day SMA ($0.000040). If that happens, the pair may complete a 100% retracement and drop to $0.000027.
AVAX/USDT
Avalanche (AVAX) is in an uptrend. The bears tried to stall the up-move and sink the price below the key support level at $81 on Nov. 16 but the bulls did not relent. The long tail on the day’s candlestick shows that buyers defended the 20-day EMA ($85.20) with vigor.
AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewBuying resumed today and the bulls have pushed the price above the overhead resistance at $101.82. If buyers sustain the price above the psychologically critical level at $100, the AVAX/USDT pair could rise to $115.14.
The upsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the overbought territory indicate that bulls are in control. The bears will have to pull the price back below the breakout level at $81 to signal a possible change in the short-term trend.
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