Price analysis 1/12: BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, ADA, XRP, LUNA, DOT, AVAX, DOGE

Bitcoin (BTC) and most major altcoins appear to have started a relief rally. Glassnode data suggests that Bitcoin addresses with a non-zero balance have risen to about 40 million, indicating increasing adoption by retail traders.

Edelman Financial Engines founder Ric Edelman said that the number of Americans owning Bitcoin could rise from 24% currently to one-third by 2022. He expects this to happen as “Bitcoin is becoming more and more mainstream. People are hearing about it everywhere — it isn’t going away.”

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

The investors buying Bitcoin seem to be in it for the long haul, if the outflows from major exchanges are any indication. CryptoQuant data shows outflows of 29,371 BTC on Jan. 11, the highest withdrawals since Sep. 10.

Could the recovery in Bitcoin and the major altcoins sustain the higher levels? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin bounced off the $39,600 support on Jan. 10 indicating that bulls are attempting to defend the level with full force. The relief rally could reach the 20-day exponential moving average ($45,058) which is likely to act as a resistance.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The downsloping moving averages and the relative strength index (RSI) in the negative zone indicate that bears have the upper hand. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the BTC/USDT pair could again retest the strong support at $39,600.

If the level cracks, the pair could witness panic selling, indicating the start of the next leg of the down move.

Alternatively, if bulls push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rise to the 50-simple moving average ($49,031). If this level is crossed, the recovery could reach the stiff overhead resistance at $52,088.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) bounced off the support line of the descending channel on Jan. 10, suggesting that bulls are attempting to defend this level with vigor. The price could reach the overhead zone between the 20-day EMA ($3,536) and the resistance line of the channel.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Both moving averages are trending down and the RSI is in the negative zone, indicating that bears have the upper hand. If the price turns down from the overhead zone, it will suggest that sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. The bears will then attempt to pull the ETH/USDT pair to the support line of the channel.

On the other hand, if bulls push the price above the overhead zone, the pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($3,938). A break and close above this resistance will suggest a possible change in trend.

BNB/USDT

Binance Coin (BNB) broke below the support line of the descending channel on Jan. 10, but the bears could not achieve a close below it as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

This could have caught the aggressive bears off guard, resulting in a short squeeze on Jan. 11. Follow-up buying today has pushed the price to the 20-day EMA ($489). If bulls clear this hurdle, the BNB/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($542).

A break and close above this resistance will suggest that the downtrend could be over. The pair could then rise to $617. Conversely, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA or the downtrend line, the bears will again try to pull the price to the support line of the channel.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) is attempting a pullback in a downtrend. The price turned up from $130 on Jan. 10 and could now reach the 20-day EMA ($159).

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The downsloping moving averages and the RSI in the negative zone suggest that bears have the upper hand. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the sellers will attempt to sink the SOL/USDT pair to the strong support at $116.

On the contrary, if bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rise to the resistance line of the channel. A break and close above the channel will signal a possible change in trend.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) turned up from $1.06 on Jan. 10, indicating that bulls are attempting a relief rally. The buyers have pushed the price to the 20-day EMA ($1.27) today.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The RSI is attempting to form a bullish divergence, indicating that the bearish momentum may be weakening. If bulls thrust the price above the moving averages, the ADA/USDT pair could rise to the resistance line of the descending channel.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the moving averages, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. The bears will then make one more attempt to pull the price down to the critical support at $1.

XRP/USDT

XRP dropped to $0.69 on Jan. 10 but the long tail on the day’s candlestick suggests that bulls bought this dip aggressively. The buyers pushed the price back above the overhead resistance at $0.75 on Jan. 11.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The XRP/USDT pair reached the 20-day EMA ($0.80) today but the long wick on the candlestick indicates that bears continue to defend this level. If the price turns down from the current level, the bears will again try to pull the XRP/USDT pair below $0.69. If they manage to do that, the pair could plummet to the Dec. 4 intraday low at $0.60.

Conversely, if bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($0.86). A break and close above this resistance could clear the path for a possible up-move to $1.

LUNA/USDT

Terra’s LUNA token bounced off the support line of the channel on Jan. 10 and broke above the 50-day SMA ($71.99) on Jan. 11. Follow-up buying has pushed the price to the 20-day EMA ($78.12) today.

LUNA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls will now try to propel the price above the resistance line of the descending channel. A close above the channel will be the first sign that the downtrend could be over. The LUNA/USDT pair will then attempt a rally to $93.81.

On the contrary, if the price turns down from the resistance line, the pair could remain inside the channel for a few more days. A break and close below the support line of the channel could indicate the start of a deeper correction.

Related: Bitcoin shoots to $44,000 as US inflation hits 7.8% in December

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) bounced off the $22.66 support on Jan. 10, indicating that the bulls are defending the support. The rebound has reached the 20-day EMA ($26.85) which could act as a resistance.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the bears will again try to sink and sustain the DOT/USDT pair below the $22.66 support. If they pull it off, the pair could resume its downtrend. The next level to watch on the downside is $16.81.

Conversely, if bulls drive the price above the moving averages, the pair could rally to the resistance of the range at $32.78. The buyers will have to push and sustain the price above this level to signal the start of a new up-move.

AVAX/USDT

Although Avalanche (AVAX) closed below the uptrend line of the symmetrical triangle on Jan. 8 and again on Jan. 10, the bears could not sustain the lower levels. This suggests that the bulls bought the dips.

AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls pushed the price back into the triangle on Jan. 11 and have followed that with another up-move today. The relief rally is likely to face stiff resistance at the moving averages.

If the price turns down from this overhead resistance, the bears will make one more attempt to sink and sustain the AVAX/USDT pair below the triangle and the critical support at $75.50.

Conversely, if bulls drive and sustain the price above the moving averages, the bulls will sense an opportunity and try to push the pair above the downtrend line of the triangle.

DOGE/USDT

The bears attempted to pull Dogecoin (DOGE) below the Dec. 4 intraday low at $0.13 but the bulls thwarted their attempt on Jan. 10. The buyers pushed the price back above $0.15 on Jan. 11 but hit a roadblock at the 20-day EMA ($0.16).

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The downsloping moving averages and the RSI in the negative territory suggest that bears have the upper hand. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the bears will attempt to pull the price below $0.13.

If they succeed, the DOGE/USDT pair could slide to the psychological support at $0.10. This negative view will invalidate if bulls drive and sustain the price above the moving averages. That could indicate a possible change in trend. The bullish momentum may pick up on a break and close above $0.19.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

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