Price analysis 1/17: BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, SOL, XRP, LUNA, DOT, AVAX, DOGE
Bitcoin’s (BTC) volatility has been shrinking in the past few days. The standard deviation of daily Bitcoin returns for the last 30 and 60 days as calculated by the Bitcoin Volatility Index is at 2.63%, the least volatile it has been since November 2020.
Generally, tight ranges are followed by strong price expansions. In 2020, the low volatility period in November was followed by a sharp rally in mid-December, which resulted in a supercycle that carried the price all the way to $64,854 on April 14, 2021.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360However, there is no certainty that the volatility expansion will happen only to the upside. The price could break out in either direction. Commentator Vince Prince warned that the high leverage ratio of Bitcoin could trigger a big chunk of stop-losses if the $40,000 support breaks down.
Could Bitcoin start a new up-move or will bears pull the price below the support levels, triggering a sell-off in altcoins? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin has been trading near the 20-day exponential moving average ($44,181) for the past few days. Although bulls have not been able to push the price above this resistance, a minor positive is that they have not given up much ground.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewIf the price turns up from the current level or $41,725.95, the bulls will make one more attempt to clear the overhead resistance at the 20-day EMA and the horizontal resistance at $45,456.
If they do that, the pair could rise to the 50-day simple moving average ($47,680) where the bulls may again encounter stiff resistance from the bears. A break and close above this resistance could push the pair to $52,088.
Conversely, if the price breaks below $41,725.95, the BTC/USDT pair could drop to the strong support at $39,600. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because if it breaks down, the selling could intensify and the pair may plummet toward $30,000.
ETH/USDT
Ether’s (ETH) recovery off the support line of the descending channel fizzled out near the 20-day EMA ($3,439), which suggests that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bears will now try to pull the price below $3,188. If they manage to do that, the ETH/USDT pair could drop to $2,928.83. This is an important support to watch out for because if it collapses, the decline could extend to $2,652.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the 20-day EMA, the bulls will try to push the pair above the resistance line of the channel. If that happens, the pair could rise to $4,200.
BNB/USDT
Binance Coin (BNB) failed to break above the resistance line of the descending channel pattern on Jan. 16. This may have sparked selling by short-term traders, pulling the price below the 20-day EMA ($488).
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewIf bears pull the price below $466.50, the BNB/USDT pair could decline toward the support line of the channel. The flat moving averages and the RSI just below the midpoint, indicate equilibrium between the bulls and bears.
If the price rebounds off $466.50, the bulls will again try to thrust the price above the channel and the 50-day SMA ($530). If they succeed, it will signal a possible change in trend. The pair could then rally to $572.
ADA/USDT
Cardano (ADA) broke and closed above the 50-day SMA ($1.34) on Jan. 16, indicating that bulls are attempting a comeback. The price could now reach the resistance line of the descending channel.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe moving averages are on the verge of a bullish crossover and the RSI has jumped into the positive zone, indicating that bulls have the upper hand in the short term. If buyers propel and sustain the price above the channel, it will signal a change in trend.
The ADA/USDT pair could first rally to $1.87 and if this level is crossed, the next move could be to $2.47. On the other hand, if the price turns down from the resistance line, the pair could again drop to the moving averages.
SOL/USDT
Solana (SOL) continues to trade inside the descending channel pattern. The bulls attempted to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($154) on Jan. 13 but failed. This suggests that bears are selling on every minor rally.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bears will now attempt to pull the price below the support at $130. If they succeed, the SOL/USDT pair could drop to the strong support at $116. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because a break below it could sink the pair to the support line of the channel.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rise to the resistance line of the channel. A break and close above the channel will signal a possible change in trend.
XRP/USDT
Ripple (XRP) has been trading between the 20-day EMA ($0.79) and the support at $0.75. This squeeze is soon likely to end in a range expansion.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewIf the price breaks below $0.75, the XRP/USDT pair could resume its downtrend and drop to $0.69 followed by a decline to $0.60. The downsloping moving averages and the RSI in the negative territory indicate advantage to bears.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up from $0.75 and breaks above the moving averages, it will suggest accumulation at lower levels. The pair could then start its northward march toward the stiff overhead resistance at $1.
LUNA/USDT
Terra’s LUNA token could not rise and sustain above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $87.88 on Jan. 15 and 16. This may have triggered profit-booking by short-term bulls.
LUNA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe price has turned down to the 20-day EMA ($80.17), which could act as a support. If the price turns up from the current level, the bulls will again try to propel and sustain the LUNA/USDT pair above $87.88.
If they succeed, the pair could rally to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $94.80. Alternatively, if the price slips below both moving averages, it will suggest that traders are rushing to the exit. The pair could then drop to $68.33.
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DOT/USDT
Polkadot (DOT) rose above the 20-day EMA ($26.90) on Jan. 12 but the bulls could not push the price above the 50-day SMA ($28.15). This may have attracted profit-booking from the short-term traders.
DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bears have pulled the price back below the 20-day EMA today. If sellers sink the price below $25.45, the DOT/USDT pair could drop to the strong support at $22.66.
The 20-day EMA is flat and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. This suggests that the pair could remain range-bound between $22.66 and $32.78 for a few more days.
If the price turns up from the current level and rises above the 50-day SMA, the pair could rally to $32.78. The bulls will have to clear this hurdle to signal the start of a new up-move.
AVAX/USDT
Avalanche (AVAX) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($95) on Jan. 16, indicating that bears continue to defend this level aggressively. If the price sustains below the uptrend line of the symmetrical triangle, the next stop could be $75.50.
AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe downsloping moving averages and the RSI in the negative zone indicate that bears have the upper hand. A close and below $75.50 could complete a descending triangle pattern, which could signal the start of a new downtrend.
The AVAX/USDT pair could drop to $57.02 and then to $50. This negative view will be invalidated if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the downtrend line. The pair could then rally to $128.
DOGE/USDT
Dogecoin’s (DOGE) failure to rise and sustain above the $0.19 overhead resistance on Jan. 15 may have attracted profit-booking from short-term traders. This has pulled the price to the 20-day EMA ($0.16).
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe flattening 20-day EMA and the RSI just below the midpoint signal a consolidation in the near term. If bears sink and sustain the price below the moving averages, the DOGE/USDT pair could drop to $0.13.
Conversely, if the price rebounds off the current level, the bulls will make one more attempt to push and sustain the pair above $0.19. If they manage to do that, it will indicate the start of a new up-move.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.