Price analysis 4/11: BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, ADA, LUNA, AVAX, DOT, DOGE
Bitcoin (BTC) and most major altcoins have broken key support levels to start the week on a weak note. The crypto markets seem to be following the U.S. equity markets lower which are being pulled down as investors reduce exposure to risky assets because of rising rates.
Arthur Hayes, ex-CEO of derivatives giant BitMEX, said that with rates moving higher and the Fed tapering its asset purchases, the equity markets could witness a meltdown. If that happens, Hayes expects the crypto markets to continue lower and Bitcoin to drop to $30,000 and Ether (ETH) to $2,500 by June of this year.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360Ark Invest founder Cathie Wood said in an interview with CNBC that decentralized finance applications are attracting huge interest from investors. The legacy banking industry is feeling the heat because they are not only losing the lending and saving business to DeFi but also losing talent to the crypto industry.
Although the long-term remains positive, could Bitcoin and altcoins weaken further in the near term? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
BTC/USDT
The bulls held Bitcoin above the 50-day simple moving average ($41,908) for the past few days but could not push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average ($43,576). This suggests that bears are selling on rallies.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe selling picked up momentum today and the bears have pulled the price below the 50-day SMA. There is a minor support at the psychological level at $40,000 but if it cracks, the BTC/USDT pair could plummet to the support line of the ascending channel. The bulls are likely to defend this level with all their might.
The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative territory indicate that bears are back in the driver’s seat. This negative view will be invalidated in the short term if the price turns up and breaks above the 20-day EMA. The pair could then rise to $45,400.
ETH/USDT
Ether traded near the 20-day EMA ($3,198) for the past few days but the weak bounce off it suggested a lack of aggressive buying by the bulls. That may have emboldened the bears who have accelerated their selling today.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bears will now try to pull the price to the 50-day SMA ($2,940). If the price rebounds off this support, the ETH/USDT pair could consolidate between the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA ($3,489) for a few days.
Alternatively, if the price breaks below the 50-day SMA, the selling could accelerate and the pair could drop to $2,800. A break below this support could result in a decline to the trend line. The bulls are expected to defend this level aggressively.
BNB/USDT
Binance Coin (BNB) turned down from the overhead resistance at $445 on April 8 and broke below the 20-day EMA ($422). This suggests that bears are selling on rallies to $445.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe buyers tried to push the price back above the 20-day EMA in the past two days but could not sustain the higher levels. This renewed the selling and the BNB/USDT pair has dropped to the 50-day SMA ($400).
A strong rebound off the current level will suggest that bulls are accumulating on dips. The buyers will have to push and sustain the price back above the 20-day EMA to enhance the prospects for a retest at $445.
Conversely, if the price breaks below the 50-day SMA, it will suggest that buying has dried up. That could pull the pair down to the strong support at $350.
SOL/USDT
Solana (SOL) turned down from the overhead resistance at $122 on April 8 and plunged below the 20-day EMA ($112). The bulls pushed the price back above the 20-day EMA on April 10 but could not sustain the higher levels. This suggests that bears are selling on rallies.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe selling picked up momentum today and the bears have pulled the price below the support at $106. The SOL/USDT pair could now drop to the 50-day SMA ($98) which is likely to act as a strong support.
If the price rebounds off the 50-day SMA and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest strong demand at lower levels. On the other hand, a break and close below the 50-day SMA could open the doors for a further downside to $81.
XRP/USDT
Ripple (XRP) had been trading above the $0.75 level for the past few days but the failure to push the price back above the moving averages may have attracted further selling by the bears.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe 20-day EMA ($0.79) has turned down and the RSI is near 34, indicating that sellers are in control. The next stop is likely to be $0.69. A strong rebound off this level will suggest that bulls are defending this level with vigor. That could keep the XRP/USDT pair range-bound between $0.69 and $0.91 for a few days.
However, if the price breaks below $0.69, the selling could intensify further and the pair could drop to the next major support at $0.60.
ADA/USDT
Cardano (ADA) made several attempts to rise back above the 20-day EMA ($1.06) in the past few days but the bears did not relent. The selling intensified today and the bears have pulled the price below the 50-day SMA ($0.96).
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewIf the price sustains below the 50-day SMA, the ADA/USDT pair could drop to the critical support at $0.74. The bears are expected to defend this level with all their might. A strong bounce off it could suggest that the pair may consolidate inside a large range between $0.74 and $1.26 for a few days.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up from the current level and rises above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest strong buying at lower levels. That could limit the trading range between the 50-day SMA and $1.26.
LUNA/USDT
Terra’s LUNA token plunged and closed below the 20-day EMA ($99) on April 8. The bulls tried a recovery on April 9 but could not challenge the 20-day EMA. This may have attracted further selling and the bears have pulled the price below the 50-day SMA ($90).
LUNA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe 20-day EMA has turned down and the RSI has dipped into the negative zone, suggesting that the momentum has turned in favor of the bears. If the price sustains below the 50-day SMA, the possibility of a drop to $75 increases. If this level also cracks, the next stop could be the strong support at the 200-day SMA ($65).
On the contrary, if the price turns up from the current level and rises above the 50-day SMA, it will suggest strong demand at lower levels. The bulls will then again attempt to push the price above the 20-day EMA.
Related: Axie Infinity sees 'no signs of buyers' as AXS price tumbles 30% in two weeks
AVAX/USDT
The bulls failed to sustain Avalanche (AVAX) above the 20-day EMA ($86) on April 8, suggesting that the bears are defending this level. This may have led to further selling and the price dipped below the 50-day SMA ($82) on April 10.
AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe 20-day EMA has turned down and the RSI is in the negative territory, indicating that bears have the upper hand. The sellers will attempt to pull the price to the next strong support at $65.
If the price rebounds off this level, it will suggest that the AVAX/USDT pair could oscillate between $65 and $99 for a few more days.
Alternatively, if the price turns up from the current level, the bulls will again try to push the pair above the 20-day EMA and challenge the overhead resistance at $99.
DOT/USDT
The bulls defended the 50-day SMA ($19) from April 8 to 10 but the failure to push Polkadot (DOT) above the 20-day EMA ($20) may have attracted selling. That has pulled the price below the strong support at $19.
DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe 20-day EMA has started to turn down and the RSI is in the negative territory, indicating that bears have the upper hand. The DOT/USDT pair could now drop to $16, which is likely to act as a strong support.
If the price rebounds off this level, the pair could remain stuck between $16 and $21 for a few more days. The next trending move is likely to start on a break below $16 or a rally above the overhead hurdle at $21.
DOGE/USDT
Dogecoin (DOGE) attempted a rally on April 10 but the long wick on the candlestick shows that bears sold at higher levels. The bears will now try to sink and sustain the price below the 20-day EMA ($0.14).
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewIf that happens, the DOGE/USDT pair could slide to the 50-day SMA ($0.13). Such a move will suggest that the pair could remain stuck inside the large range between $0.17 and $0.10 for the next few days.
The flattening 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint also suggest a consolidation in the near term. If the price rebounds off the current level, the bulls will again try to push the pair to $0.17. A break and close above the 200-day SMA ($0.18) could indicate the start of a potential new uptrend.
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