Price analysis 7/1: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, SOL, LTC, MATIC, DOT
Bitcoin (BTC) witnessed a volatile trading session on the last day of the quarter. The bulls were trying to maintain Bitcoin’s price above $31,000 but they received a jolt on a Wall Street Journal report which stated that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had returned applications for the Bitcoin spot-price exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Although there was a knee-jerk reaction to the news, the downside was limited because it turned out that the ETF applications were returned due to a technical issue. The regulators said the asset managers could refile after providing the necessary clarifications.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360Bitcoin’s failure to cross above $31,000 seems to be making the short-term speculators jittery. A Glassnode research report released on June 28 shows that short-term holders (STHs), entities holding coins for 155 days or less, have sent more than 35,000 coins to the exchanges.
Any adverse news is likely to witness a negative reaction from SThs. What are the important support and resistance levels that need to be watched on Bitcoin and altcoins in the near term? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin continues its tight consolidation near the overhead resistance at $31,000. This shows that the bears are trying their level best to stall the up-move but the bulls have kept up the pressure.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewGenerally, a tight consolidation near an overhead resistance resolves to the upside. The upsloping 20-day exponential moving average ($28,982) and the relative strength index (RSI) in the positive territory indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside.
If buyers sustain the price above $31,000, the BTC/USDT pair could pick up momentum and start the next leg of its uptrend. There is a minor resistance at $32,400 but it is likely to be scaled. The pair could then dash toward $40,000.
This positive view will invalidate in the near term if the price turns down and plummets below the 20-day EMA. The pair may then swing inside the large range between $31,000 and $24,800 for a few more days.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) bounced off the moving averages on June 29, indicating that the lower levels are attracting buyers.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bulls will try to propel the price above the overhead resistance at $1,937. If they manage to do that, the ETH/USDT pair may rise to the psychological level of $2,000. This level may again act as a minor barrier but it is likely to be crossed. The pair may then rally to $2,142.
Instead, if the price turns down sharply from 1,937, it will suggest that bears are not willing to surrender. That will increase the likelihood of a drop below the moving averages. The pair may then slump to $1,700 and next to $1,600.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) slipped below the support at $230 on June 28 but the long tail on the candlestick shows that the bulls aggressively purchased the dip.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe 20-day EMA ($245) remains the key level for the bulls to cross. If they kick the price above it, the BNB/USDT pair could fly toward the overhead resistance zone between $257 and $265. Sellers are expected to mount a strong defense in this zone.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. The bears will then make one more attempt to sink the pair below $220 and start the next leg of the downtrend.
XRP price analysis
XRP (XRP) fell close to the first support at $0.44 on June 28 and June 30 but the long tail on the candlesticks shows strong buying at lower levels.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe $0.44 support is an important level to watch out for in the near term. If this level breaks down, the selling could pick up and the XRP/USDT pair may tumble to $0.41. This level may again attract strong buying by the bulls.
The 20-day EMA ($0.48) remains the key resistance for the bulls to scale. If buyers overcome this obstacle, it will enhance the prospects of a rally to the strong overhead resistance zone between $0.53 and $0.56.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) has been range-bound between $0.24 and $0.30 for the past few days. The long wick on the June 30 candlestick shows that the bears are fiercely defending the $0.30 level.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe failure to sustain the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.28) could keep the ADA/USDT pair stuck inside the range for some more time.
A close above the 20-day EMA will be the first indication that the bears may be losing their grip. Buyers will then try to strengthen their position further by driving the price above the crucial overhead resistance at $0.30. If they do that, the pair may surge toward the 50-day SMA ($0.32).
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) turned up from the support at $0.06 on June 28, indicating that the bulls continue to defend the level with vigor.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe flattish 20-day EMA ($0.07) and the RSI just below the midpoint suggest a range-bound action in the near term. The price may swing between $0.06 and $0.07 for a while longer. This neutral view will tilt in favor of the buyers if they thrust and sustain the price above the overhead resistance at $0.07. The DOGE/USDT pair may then climb to $0.08.
Alternatively, the bears will have to sink and sustain the price below the strong support of $0.06 to gain the upper hand. The pair may then fall to the vital support at $0.05.
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) broke below the $16.18 support on June 28 but this proved to be a bear trap. The price turned up sharply on June 29 and skyrocketed above the 20-day EMA ($17.07) as the bears may have rushed to cover their short positions.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe buying continued on June 30 and the bulls are trying to drive the price above the breakdown level of $18.70. If they can pull it off, the SOL/USDT pair may shoot up to $22 and subsequently to $24.
If bears want to prevent the upside, they will have to stop the relief rally at $18.70 and pull the price back below the 20-day EMA. The pair could then retest the crucial support zone between $16.18 and $15.28.
Related: Why approving a Bitcoin ETF might unleash $18B in sell-pressure
Litecoin price analysis
Litecoin (LTC) plummeted below the moving averages on June 28 but the bears could not build upon this advantage.
LTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bulls purchased the dip on June 29 and pushed the price back above the moving averages on June 30. This attracted aggressive buying by the bulls who drove the price above the downtrend line of the descending channel pattern. The price reached the crucial resistance at $106 but the bulls could not overcome this barrier.
This is an important level for the bears to defend because if this resistance crumbles, the LTC/USDT pair may jump to $135. The major support is at the downtrend line of the channel.
Polygon price analysis
Polygon (MATIC) is attempting to form a bullish ascending triangle pattern, which will complete on a break and close above $0.69.
MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bulls tried to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.66) on June 30 but the long wick on the candlestick shows aggressive selling at higher levels. If the price dips below the uptrend line, the MATIC/USDT pair may slide toward $0.55.
Alternatively, if the price rises from the current level, it will signal strong buying near the uptrend line. A break and close above $0.69 could open the doors for a potential rally to the 50-day SMA and subsequently to $1.
Polkadot price analysis
The bears tried to sink Polkadot (DOT) below the 20-day EMA ($4.93) on June 28 and June 30 but the bulls held their ground. This suggests that dips are being bought.
DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bulls are attempting to clear and sustain the overhead hurdle at $5.15. If they succeed, the DOT/USDT pair rise to $5.56. This level may attract strong selling by the bears but on the way down, if bulls do not allow the price to slip below $5.15, the possibility of a rally to the downtrend line increases.
The 20-day EMA remains the key level to watch out for because a break below it may open the doors for a collapse to the pivotal support at $4.22.
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