Price analysis 7/16: BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, XRP, DOGE, DOT, UNI, BCH, LTC
Bitcoin (BTC) is witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near $31,000, which makes it an important level to watch out for. Data from Glassnode shows that the $31,000 to $34,300 zone has seen strong interest from buyers and sellers as 9.93% of the Bitcoin supply has moved in this zone.
The failure of Bitcoin to rally quickly from strong support levels indicates weak demand. Proof of the current disinterest comes from BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, who said in a recent CNBC interview that investor demand for cryptocurrencies had declined recently. Fink said that during his last two weeks of business travel, not one question about Bitcoin and crypto investing was presented to him.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360Another sign of reduced demand is that the 90-day inflow into the United States and Canada-based Bitcoin funds has plunged 93.49% from 191,846 BTC in January to 12,485 BTC, according to data collected by ByteTree Asset Management.
In an interview with CNBC on July 14, DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said that Bitcoin could drop under $23,000 due to the head-and-shoulders trading pattern, which “looks pretty convincing.”
Will Bitcoin break below the support and start the next leg down or is it due for a rebound? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to determine the critical levels to watch out for.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin has been trading near the $31,000 support for the past two days. The failure to rebound sharply off this critical support is a weak sign as it suggests a lack of strong demand at these levels.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe downsloping moving averages and the relative strength index (RSI) in the negative territory indicate that bears have the upper hand. A break and close below $31,000 could open the doors for a drop to the next support at $28,000.
If the price rebounds off the $31,000 to $28,000 zone with strength, it will suggest accumulation at lower levels. The bulls will then try to push the price above the moving averages. A breakout and close above the 50-day simple moving average ($35,084) will be the first sign of a possible change in trend.
Conversely, if the price slips below $28,000, the bearish momentum could pick up and the BTC/USDT pair could slump to $20,000.
ETH/USDT
Ether’s (ETH) relief rally on July 14 could not rise above the 20-day exponential moving average ($2,097). This suggests that sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on every minor rally. The biggest altcoin could now drop to the critical support at $1,728.74.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewBoth moving averages are sloping down and the RSI is below 41, indicating that bears are in control. If bears sink the price below $1,728.74, the ETH/USDT pair will complete a descending triangle pattern.
That could signal the resumption of the downtrend with the next support at $1,536.92 and then $1,293.18.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off the $1,728.74 support, the bulls will make one more attempt to clear the moving averages. If they succeed, the pair could rally to the downtrend line.
BNB/USDT
Binance Coin (BNB) has been trading near the 20-day EMA ($313) for the past few days. Although the price dipped below the 20-day EMA on July 14, the long tail on the day’s candlestick showed buying at lower levels.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe buyers attempted to push the price above the 50-day SMA ($329) on July 15 but failed. This shows the bears have not yet given up and are aggressively defending the 50-day SMA. The flat moving averages and the RSI just below the midpoint indicate a balance between supply and demand.
A breakout and close above the 50-day SMA will be the first sign of strength. The bulls will then try to push the price to $379.58 and later to $400. On the contrary, a break below the $276.40 to $264.26 support zone will signal advantage to the bears. That could pull the price down to $211.70.
ADA/USDT
Cardano’s (ADA) rebound off $1.19 on July 14 could not climb back above $1.28, suggesting that bears are defending this level aggressively. The price turned down from $1.28 on July 15 and plunged below $1.19 today.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe long tail on today’s candlestick suggests that bulls are again attempting to stall the decline and start a relief rally. A breakout and close above the 20-day EMA ($1.32) will be the first sign of strength. The pair could then rise to the 50-day SMA ($1.44).
On the other hand, if bears sustain the price below $1.19, the ADA/USDT pair could continue its decline to $1.10. A break below this support may retest the critical support at $1. This level has held on several occasions since Feb. 26, hence the bulls will again try to defend it.
A strong rebound off $1 will indicate accumulation at lower levels but the bulls are likely to face stiff resistance at $1.19. If the price turns down from this level, the possibility of a break below $1 increases. If that happens, the pair could start a new downtrend with the next support at $0.80.
XRP/USDT
The bulls are attempting to defend the $0.59 support for the past two days but have not been able to achieve a strong rebound off it. This suggests a lack of urgency among traders to buy XRP at the current levels.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe downsloping moving averages and the RSI below 39 suggest that bears have the upper hand. A break and close below $0.59 could pull the price down to the critical support at $0.50.
If the price rebounds off $0.50 with strength, the bulls will again try to push the XRP/USDT pair above the 20-day EMA ($0.65). If they succeed, the pair could rise to $0.75.
On the other hand, if bears sink the price below $0.50, the pair could drop to the next support at $0.45 and later to $0.40.
DOGE/USDT
Dogecoin (DOGE) has continued to drift lower toward the critical support at $0.15. This level had held on two previous occasions, hence the bulls will again try to defend it aggressively.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewIf the price rebounds off $0.15, the bulls will try to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.22). If they can pull it off, it will suggest the start of a relief rally that may reach the 50-day SMA ($0.27).
Conversely, if bears sink the price below $0.15, the selling could intensify as traders rush to the exit. That could result in a fall to $0.10 and later to $0.07. The downsloping moving averages and the RSI near the oversold zone suggest that the possibility of a breakdown is higher.
DOT/USDT
The failure of the bulls to drive Polkadot (DOT) back above $14.50 in the past two days indicates a lack of demand at higher levels. That resulted in further selling today, sinking the altcoin below the critical support at $13.
DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewBoth moving averages are sloping down and the RSI is near the oversold territory, suggesting that bears are in command. If the price sustains below $13, the DOT/USDT pair could decline to the next support at $10.
The bulls may try to arrest the decline at the psychological level at $10 but any relief rally is likely to face resistance at $13. If the bears flip this level into resistance, the possibility of a drop to $7 increases. The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA ($15.38).
UNI/USDT
Uniswap’s (UNI) attempt to rebound off the $16.93 support on July 14 did not find buyers at higher levels. The altcoin turned down on July 15 and broke below $16.93 today but the long tail on the day’s candlestick suggests buying at lower levels.
UNI/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewIf the price sustains above $16.93, the bulls will again try to push the price to the downtrend line. A breakout and close above this resistance will suggest a possible change in trend.
Conversely, if the price sustains below $16.93, the UNI/USDT pair could drop to $15 and later to the critical support at $13. Both moving averages have turned down and the RSI has dipped below 40, indicating that bears have the upper hand.
If the price plummets below $13, the pair will complete a bearish descending triangle pattern. This could resume the downtrend with the next support at $10 and then $7.
Related: Bitcoin price passes $32K with traders wary of 'relief rally' if resistance stays
BCH/USDT
The bulls tried to push Bitcoin Cash (BCH) back above $475.69 on July 14 but failed. This suggests that bears have flipped the $475.69 level to resistance. The altcoin turned down and resumed its down move on July 15.
BCH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThere is a minor support at $428. If the price rebounds off this level, the bulls will again try to push the BCH/USDT pair above $475.69. If they succeed, the pair may rise to $538.11. A breakout of this resistance will indicate a possible change in trend.
Alternatively, if the price continues its down move and breaks below $428, the pair could drop to the psychological level at $400 and then $370. The declining moving averages and the RSI below 36 suggest that bears are in control. A break below $370 could start the next leg of the downtrend.
LTC/USDT
Litecoin’s (LTC) rebound off the $118 support on July 14 fizzled out at the downtrend line on July 15. This suggests that bears are defending the downtrend line aggressively.
LTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe downsloping moving averages and the RSI below 36 suggest the path of least resistance is to the downside. If bears sink and sustain the price below $118, the LTC/USDT pair could drop to the $104.92 to $100 support zone.
This zone may attract buyers but if bulls fail to propel the price back above $118, the selling might continue. A break below $100 could extend the decline to the next support at $70. This negative view will invalidate if the price rebounds off the current level and breaks above the downtrend line.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.