Price analysis 8/15: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, SHIB, AVAX
Bitcoin (BTC) has been witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the $25,000 level. A clear winner may not emerge in the short term due to a lack of a catalyst and because there is no major macroeconomic data scheduled for this week in the United States. Data points from Asia or Europe may increase volatility, but they are unlikely to start a new directional move.
Anthony Scaramucci, founder and managing partner of Skybridge Capital, in an interview with CNBC, advised investors to ride out the current uncertainty in cryptocurrencies and “stay patient and stay long term.” He expects Bitcoin to reward investors immensely with a sharp uptrend over the next six years.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360Along with the focus on Bitcoin, investors are also keeping a close eye on Ether (ETH) ahead of its Merge scheduled for Sept. 15. A whale address that had participated in the genesis ICO but had remained dormant for three years has transferred about 150,000 Ether on Aug. 14. This has led to differing views with some speculating that the whale may dump his holdings after the Merge but others believe that the transfers may have been done to stake the huge quantity of Ether.
Could buying emerge at lower levels and resume the up-move in Bitcoin and the altcoins? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
BTC/USDT
The bulls tried to resume the up-move in Bitcoin but the bears sold aggressively at $25,211 and pulled the price down to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($23,483). This resulted in the formation of an outside-day candlestick pattern on Aug. 15.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe gradually upsloping 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) in the positive territory indicate advantage to buyers. If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bulls are buying the dips to this level. That could improve the prospects of a break and close above $24,668.
If that happens, the pair could start its northward march toward $28,000 where the bears may again pose a strong challenge.
Another possibility is that the bears sink the price below the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the pair could drop to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($22,037) and later to the uptrend line.
ETH/USDT
Ether repeatedly rose above the psychological resistance at $2,000 for the past two days but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. This suggests that bears are posing a stiff challenge at this level.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe ETH/USDT pair could decline to the breakout level at $1,700. This is an important level to watch out for because if bulls flip $1,700 into support, it will increase the likelihood of a break above $2,000. If that happens, the pair could rally to the downtrend line.
The upsloping 20-day EMA ($1,756) and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that bulls are in control. To invalidate this bullish view, bears will have to sink and sustain the price below the 20-day EMA. That could sink the pair to the 50-day SMA ($1,465).
BNB/USDT
BNB's up-move hit a hurdle at the overhead resistance at $338. The bears will now try to sink the price to the immediate support at the 20-day EMA ($306).
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewIf the price rebounds off this support, the buyers will make another attempt to push the BNB/USDT pair above the $338 to $350 resistance zone. The upsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive territory indicate the path of least resistance is to the upside.
This positive view could invalidate in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the short-term traders may rush to the exit and that could pull the pair to the 50-day SMA ($266).
XRP/USDT
The bulls tried to push XRP above the overhead resistance at $0.39 on Aug. 13 and 14 but the bears held their ground. This may have attracted profit-booking from the short-term traders, which pulled the price below the 20-day EMA ($0.37).
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewIf bears sink the price below the 50-day SMA, the XRP/USDT pair could stay range-bound between $0.30 and $0.39 for some more time. The flattish 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint also suggest a consolidation in the near term.
Conversely, if the price rebounds off the moving averages, it will indicate that lower levels are attracting buyers. The bulls will then again try to clear the overhead hurdle and push the pair to $0.48 and later to $0.54.
ADA/USDT
The bulls pushed Cardano (ADA) above the overhead resistance at $0.55 on Aug. 13 but could not maintain the momentum on Aug. 14. This suggests that bears are active at higher levels.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe price turned down on Aug. 15 and reached the breakout level of $0.55. The zone between $0.55 and the 20-day EMA ($0.53) is likely to attract strong buying by the bulls. If the price rebounds off this zone, the buyers will again attempt to resume the up-move and push the ADA/USDT pair to $0.63 and then to $0.70.
On the contrary, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the break above $0.55 may have been a bull trap. The pair could then drop to the 50-day SMA ($0.49).
SOL/USDT
Solana (SOL) rose to the overhead resistance at $48 on Aug. 13 but the bulls could not overcome this barrier. The bulls again tried to clear the overhead hurdle on Aug. 15 but the bears did not relent.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewIf the SOL/USDT pair breaks below the 20-day EMA ($42), the next stop could be the support line. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because a break and close below it could invalidate the bullish ascending triangle pattern. The pair could then decline to $32.
Conversely, if the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, the bulls will again try to push and sustain the pair above $48. If they manage to do that, the bullish setup will complete and the pair could rally to $60.
DOGE/USDT
Dogecoin (DOGE) bounced off the 20-day EMA ($0.07) on Aug. 12 and broke above the overhead resistance at $0.08 on Aug. 14. This completed the bullish ascending triangle pattern but the bulls could not sustain the breakout.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bears sold at higher levels and pulled the price back below the breakout level on Aug. 15. A minor positive is that lower levels are attracting buyers, as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick. If the price sustains above $0.08, the buyers will try to resume the up-move and push the DOGE/USDT pair to $0.10.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price slips below the moving averages and the trendline of the triangle, it will invalidate the bullish setup. The pair could then sink to $0.06.
Related: Crypto-focused venture firm Dragonfly acquires hedge fund: Bloomberg
DOT/USDT
Polkadot (DOT) rose above the overhead resistance of $9.65 on Aug. 13 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. This may have tempted the short-term traders to book profits.
DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe DOT/USDT pair dipped below the breakout level of $9 on Aug. 14 and the price reached the 20-day EMA ($8.63) on Aug. 15. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break below it could suggest that the bullish momentum has weakened. The pair could then decline to the 50-day SMA ($7.68) and stay range-bound for some time.
Alternatively, if the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, the bulls will try to clear the overhead resistance at $9.68. If they pull it off, the pair could rise to $10.80 and later to $12.44.
SHIB/USDT
Shiba Inu (SHIB) had been trading above $0.000012 since Aug. 7 but the up-move had failed to pick up momentum. That changed with the sharp rally on Aug. 14, which pushed the price above the overhead resistance at $0.000017.
SHIB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewHowever, the bears have not given up. They sold the rise above $0.000017 and pulled the price back below the level on Aug. 15. The SHIB/USDT pair could find support at $0.000015 and then at $0.000014. If the price rebounds off either level, the buyers will again try to clear the overhead hurdle. If they succeed, the pair could rally to $0.000022.
On the contrary, if the price breaks below $0.000014, it will indicate that the pair could oscillate in a large range between $0.000010 and $0.000018 for a few more days.
AVAX/USDT
Buyers tried to push Avalanche (AVAX) above the overhead resistance on Aug. 13 but the bears stalled the attempt at $30.35. This suggests that bears are active at higher levels.
AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe AVAX/USDT pair could decline to the breakout level of $26.38, which is just above the 20-day EMA ($26.34). The bulls are expected to defend this level with vigor. If the price rebounds off $26.38, it will suggest demand at lower levels. The pair could then consolidate between $26.38 and $31 for some time.
If bears sink the price below $26.38, several aggressive bulls may get trapped. That could sink the pair to the 50-day SMA ($22.39).
Conversely, if the price rebounds off the current level and rises above $31, it will suggest the start of a rally to $33 and later to the pattern target of $39.05.
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